The ICAR -Network Project on Market Intelligence of the Kerala Agricultural University has predicted that the declining trend of pepper prices in the market will improve from April this year .
Based on the prevailing market sentiments and econometric analysis of pepper prices, the Centre says that while considering the overall production and market information, at the prevailing demand supply situation, the price is expected to decline marginally till March and is slated to increase from April.
The global output of black pepper estimates for 2015 as per the statement of world pepper market scenario released by the International Pepper Community was 4,07,158 tonnes.
The production of black pepper in India during 2014-15 was about 70,000 tonnes as per the Spices Board.
The pepper output for 2015-16 in India is expected to be lower by more than 30 per cent over the previous year due to erratic weather conditions in Kerala and Karnataka. The prices of black pepper showed an increasing pattern from August to November 2015 owing to strong demand against tight supply.
The prices started declining from December 2015 owing to the expectation of increased market arrivals after the harvest. In spite of the new market season, the prices are still ruling in the range of â 630 to 650 per kg as the arrivals in the markets are low. Due to the lower estimates of production in 2016, the producers who are in possession of the previous stock are also holding back in anticipation of increasing prices in the coming months.
Less arrivals of black pepper at the terminal market in 2015 have caused shortage of supply in India and hence, imports to the country has been increasing. Out of the 10,100 tonnes of black pepper imported to India from April 2015 to September 2015 for meeting the needs of high-end value added product manufacturers and re-export, the major share has been from Srilanka followed by Vietnam.
The study of the seasonality pattern in black pepper prices has revealed that in most of the years after 1995, the prices were lowest in the month of February, with the exception of few years where the lowest prices were recorded in March, the centre says.

Source : The Hindu