Met predicts surplus rainfall in Aug-Sept period

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In line with predictions, the South-West monsoon, the country’s agricultural lifeline, has stayed on course for the first half of the four-month season, starting June.

The timely and widespread precipitation, after two-successive weak monsoon years, has provided a fillip to crop plantings this kharif season, thereby raising prospects of a good harvest, which has induced a softening trend in prices of many farm commodities.

Surplus forecast

Cumulative rainfall for the season so far has been normal at 454.7 mm as against a normal of 452.8 mm for the period.

Though the arrival of the monsoon was delayed by about eight days, the swift progress has ensured adequate rainfall across most parts of the country, except pockets such as Gujarat, Kerala and some North-Eastern States.

Rainfall in July was 9.8 per cent above normal, while in June it had registered a deficit of 11 per cent.

Global models are of the view that for the rest of the season, the monsoon will stay on track, delivering normal to above-normal rains across for many parts of the country.

In fact, a long-range forecast for the second-half of the season (August-September) issued by the India Meteorological Department on Monday said that rainfall is likely to be above normal (106 per cent of the long period average, LPA).

Quantitatively, overall rainfall during the second half is likely to be 107 per cent of the LPA of 43.5 cm, with a model error of 8 per cent.

Rainfall in August is likely to be 104 per cent with a model error of ±9 per cent of the LPA as was forecast in June.

As for the entire season (June to September), rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106 per cent with a model error of ±4 per cent of LPA of 89 cm as was forecast in June.

Kharif gets a boost

The timely and normal precipitation has given a boost to sowing of kharif crops such as rice, pulses and oilseeds. In fact, the total kharif acreage, so far, has been 6.28 per cent higher at 799.51 lakh ha over corresponding last year’s 752.29 lakh ha.

Acreage under pulses crops such as tur, urad and moong have gained significantly from crops such as cotton and bajra this year.

The area under rice, the main kharif cereal crop, has also gained, as have coarse cereals such as maize and jowar, and oilseeds such as groundnut, soyabean and sunflower.

‘Neutral’ pacific

The Met update observed that the strong El Nino event of 2015-16 in the tropical Pacific had ended in May this year and currently ‘neutral’ conditions (neither El Nino nor La Nina) are prevailing.

It says there is a strong probability (70 per cent) that ‘neutral’ conditions will persist during the remainder of the monsoon.

IOD watch

However, some of the global models suggest development of weak La Nina conditions in the latter part of the season.

La Nina conditions have mostly coincided with a reasonably good Indian monsoon, though there is no direct cause-effect relationship between the two.

Closer home, over the Indian Ocean, there is a 40 per cent probability that the current negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions will persist during the remainder of the monsoon season.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has already classified the prevailing negative IOD as a ‘strong’ one.

The IOD mimics the El Nino-La Nina conditions in the Indian Ocean and is known to have a more immediate impact on the monsoon. A positive IOD (when the western part of the Indian Ocean warms up relative to the east) boosts the Indian monsoon while these conditions reverse in a negative IOD event and have a drag effect on the monsoon. 

Source : Business Line