Dip in acreage
Wheat, so far, has been planted on 259.37 lakh hectares (lh), about seven per cent lower than corresponding last year’s 279.60 lh.
The biggest wheat producing State, Uttar Pradesh, has seen an acreage shortfall of 11.81 lh, followed by Madhya Pradesh at 2.73 lh, Gujarat at 2.65 lh and Maharashtra at 2.59 lh.
Though acreages have been maintained in Punjab and Haryana at 34.75 lh and 24.91 lh respectively, the delayed planting in several areas of these States could trigger productivity concerns, an expert said.
Productivity concerns
“Going by the current trend, there could be a significant reduction in wheat acreage this year. Though planting goes on till January 10, mainly in the marginal areas of Uttar Pradesh, productivity would be a concern,” said Indu Sharma, Director of the Karnal-based Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research told Business Line.
The normal rabi area for wheat is around 300 lh and so far the cereal has been planted on 259.37 lh.
In other major producing states, wheat acreages have been impacted by poor soil moisture levels – a result of weak monsoon this year and also by the higher temperature levels due to delayed onset of winter.
“As a result of reduced acreages and delayed planting, wheat productivity could take a hit. A clearer picture of the impact on the crop would emerge by mid-January,” Sharma added.
Wheat production last year stood at 88.94 million tonnes(mt), according to the fourth advance estimates issued in mid-September.
For the current 2015-16 rabi season, the union government was targeting a wheat output of 94.75 mt.
Price outlook
A potential reduction in output is unlikely to have any major impact on the prices as the stocks with Food Corporation of India and other agencies stood at 26.87 mt as on December 1, almost twice the buffer and strategic reserve norm.
Trade sources said prices of wheat were likely to remain range-bound in the weeks ahead on lack of demand. “I don’t see any big demand for wheat products post-Christmas that would keep the prices subdued. Also, adequate supplies from FCI are keeping prices under control,” said MK Dattaraj, Managing Director of the Bengaluru-based Krishna Flour Mills. Meanwhile, except for gram or chana, the acreages of other major rabi crop rapeseed-mustard has witnessed a decline over last year’s levels.
Total area sown to all rabi crops was down at 520.07 lh compared with 540.17 lh in the same period last season.
Dipping storage levels
A reduced water storage level in reservoirs across the country due to poor rains has impacted the planting of other rabi crops too and the overall acreages for the season were down by 3.72 per cent so far.
The country, except Southern peninsula and Kashmir, has witnessed deficient rains in the post-monsoon season for the period from October 1, 2015 till date.
Source : Business Line