IMD predicts excess rainfall

‘Southwest monsoon will set in over Kerala in next 3 or 4 days’

Even while maintaining that the torrential rain in Kerala was pre-monsoon showers, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday said in an update to its April monsoon forecast that rainfall would be 6% above the 50-year average of 89 cm.

Rains over north-west India would be 8% more; over Central and South India 13% more and over north-east India 6% less than what these regions historically got.

Monsoon during the months of July and August — the most critical for agriculture — are also expected to be munificent with the agency predicting rainfall monsoon to be 7% and 4% more than what the country usually gets during these months.

As The Hindu reported earlier, the IMD was increasingly confident about the probability of copious monsoon rains due to the receding of the dreaded El Nino — the anomalous heating of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific and six in ten times responsible for a drought — and several international weather agencies predicting that the converse La Nina conditions are likely to set in the latter part of the July-September monsoon season.

Floods likely

In fact, the country may have to brace for floods and the possibility of the monsoon spilling over into October. “There is a possibility of rains after September,” said Laxman Rathore, IMD Director-General.

“October is definitely going to see significant rain,” said Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency.

The IMD maintained that the monsoon was yet to arrive in over Kerala and would do so “in the next three or four days”.

Source : The Hindu