Monsoon set to revive; enter Andhra, Odisha, Maharashtra this weekend

Normally, by June 10, the Arabian Sea arm of the monsoon should have covered most of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh while the Bay of Bengal arm should have reached East Uttar Pradesh.

Thiruvananthapuram, June 16:  

A cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal followed by a low-pressure area is expected to play a crucial role in the revival of the monsoon later this week.

The India Met Department had put out a watch for the cyclonic circulation forming in the Bay of Bengal, which has since materialised.

‘Low’ to follow

Importantly, a low-pressure area may pop up close to the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh coasts by June 25, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

Together, the cyclonic circulation and the ‘low’ could help revive the monsoon, which is in a recess after a delayed onset over Kerala on June 8.

In fact, projections by the Met as well as by international models suggest the monsoon driving itself to a peak during the last 10 days of June.

Over the next two to three days, India Met expects the monsoon to advance into the entire Konkan and Goa (including Mumbai) region; parts of South Chhattisgarh, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada; remaining parts of North Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh; parts of Telangana, Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar.

Spurt in rain

Seasonal rains are expected to propagate along the West Coast towards Mumbai and South Gujarat, while they will push west from the Bay of Bengal into Central India and parts of North-West India.

Meanwhile, India Met points to the possibility of a fresh spurt in rainfall off the Chennai coast from June 22, in what appears to support the outlook of the European Centre.

This would come on the heels of the current cyclonic circulation sending an active rain-head into the rest of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra.

According to initial readings, the ‘low’ is likely to travel in a north-northwest direction into Rayalaseema, Madhya Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh.

Monsoon milestones

Heavy to very heavy rain should be triggered during this phase over Kerala with exceptionally heavy rain over Central and adjoining North Kerala.

Normally, by June 10, the Arabian Sea arm of the monsoon should have covered most of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh while the Bay of Bengal arm should have reached East Uttar Pradesh.

Both these milestones are now expected to be achieved during the incoming busy phase of the monsoon, and will be late by at least a week in the western regions (Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh).

Given the delay in the onset over the Kerala coast, this was only to be expected, although the initial burst had made it appear as if the monsoon would make up for lost time.

On Thursday, the monsoon’s northern limit was stuck along Karwar on the West Coast, Gadag and Ongole in the southern peninsula. 

Source : The Hindu